I listen to a local sports station when driving in my car. Since the different sports leagues have shut down, most of the talk has been about the Coronavirus. Over the last couple of weeks, the basic tenor of the hosts’ commentary is to shelter in place and follow the governor’s guidelines to a T. They get frustrated when people call in and wonder if it’s wise to tank the economy by having everyone shelter in place, and the hosts’ responses to emailers or callers are usually somewhere along the lines of you either follow what the government says or “let it rip”! By “Let it rip,” the host is saying that people want to do nothing to slow the spread of the virus.
My worry is that with the black or white choice of quarantine and “let it rip,” it logically follows that we must remain under quarantine until the virus is completely gone/defeated. This logic will keep pushing the quarantine back further and further.
I think this is a false choice. It seems to me that there are many levels of gradation between “letting it rip” on one end of the spectrum and having everyone sit in their houses for weeks or months on the other end of the spectrum.
I am not a doctor or an epidemiologist, but I propose the creation of guidelines numbered from 1–10 with each increase showing a higher level of response:
- Wash hands, sneeze or cough into a tissue, avoid touching face
- Disinfect surfaces regularly
- If you feel sick/have symptoms, do not go to work or school
- Do not visit nursing homes, hospitals, long-term care facilities unless providing critical assistance
- Avoid discretionary travel
- Avoid social gatherings of more than 10 people
- Avoid eating or drinking in restaurants and bars
- Workplaces institute some sort of varied work schedule to minimize number of people in office at one time
- Work or study from home
- Shelter in place/quarantine
I would be interested in seeing the curve models with each of these implemented, and see what each level of response would do to the overall number of cases/deaths.
Another benefit about preparing a scale like this is that it would allow different cities/states to choose a response that is somewhere between shutting down everything and “letting it rip.”
Finally, it would also give cities/states a way to walk down the restrictions when the virus is still present, but no longer as prevalent.
